Forex Factory Forex markets for the smart money.

Ethereum Classic

Ethereum Classic is an open, decentralized, and permissionless public blockchain, that aims to fulfill the original promise of Ethereum, as a platform where smart contracts are free from third-party interference. ETC prioritizes trust-minimization, network security, and integrity. All network upgrades are non-contentious with the aim to fix critical issues or to add value with newly proposed features; never to create new tokens, or to bail out flawed smart contracts and their interest groups.
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Forex ru советник Илан

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Обзор ICO Storweey

Цель Storweey – создание розничного рынка электронной торговли, где покупатели и продавцы могут взаимодействовать, используя при покупке-продаже как фиатные деньги, так и криптовалюту. В основе платформы Storweey заложена технология, включающая в себя децентрализованные, безопасные, Peer-to-Peer транзакции. Платформа Storweey открывает широкие возможности для индивидуальных предпринимателей, представителей малого и среднего бизнеса, семейного ритейла и производителей товаров handmade. Можно выделить важные инструменты данной платформы такие, как: различные средства для непосредственной обратной связи с клиентами, ведение бухгалтерии, анализ продаж, рекламы и продвижения, а также удобный интерфейс. Прочитать полную версию моего обзора можно здесь.
Дорожная карта
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Решением суда заблокирован популярный новостной и аналитический интернет-ресурс ForexPF.ru, предлагающий в том числе услугу онлайн-трейдинга на рынке Forex.

Решением суда заблокирован популярный новостной и аналитический интернет-ресурс ForexPF.ru, предлагающий в том числе услугу онлайн-трейдинга на рынке Forex. submitted by Forjoin to ecobis [link] [comments]

Банк России сравнил рынок Forex с казино

Банк России сравнил рынок Forex с казино
Валютный рынок Forex подходит больше тем, кто ищет адреналин, как в казино, а не для инвесторов, желающих заработать, рассказал первый зампред Сергей Швецов в ходе онлайн конференции в субботу.
https://preview.redd.it/qno88ldan8r51.jpg?width=260&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=199f53d9c7920194ce833bd2da526dc6dbd6c9ea
«Forex - это как казино. И если вы хотите получить адреналин, получить эмоции, торгуя валютами с большим плечом, вы являетесь квалифицированным инвестором, наверное, рынок Forex вам подходит. Если ваша цель не адреналин, а заработать, я вам советую дежаться от Forex подальше», - рассказал он.
Швецов добавил, что не против большого количества рекламы Forex-дилеров о бесплатном обучении и понимать, как работает данный рынок весьма любопытно.
«Я вообще хорошо отношусь к любому обучению, потому что лишних знаний не бывает. Важно, чтобы эти знания приносили вам благо. Чтобы вы с помощью этих знаний достигали своих жизненных целей», - сказал он.
Закон о регулировании рынка Forex в России был официально принят в 2015 году. Так, помимо введения дополнительных норм, закон «О рынке ценных бумаг» был дополнен статьей «Деятельность форекс-дилера». С 2019 года форекс-брокеры с лицензией ЦБ РФ обязаны быть участникам отраслевых саморегулируемых организаций (СРО). На сегодняшний день имеют лицензию на осуществление деятельности форекс-дилера в России только четыре организации. Это «ПСБ-Форекс», «Финам Форекс», «Альфа-Форекс» и «ВТБ Форекс».
отсюда
submitted by GazetaPravda to RussNews [link] [comments]

One more day to our main app launch! Get ready for real money trading.

One more day to our main app launch! Get ready for real money trading.
https://preview.redd.it/38yqms52tzr51.jpg?width=526&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8ae9736c169a6451fc9824f26600e53801eeea24
Level01 is the World’s 1st DeFi Platform with AI-Guided Derivatives Trading.
- Clear, Transparent and Fair Options Trading DApp - Decentralized: Peer to peer options trading for more profits - Trade Fairly: FairSense AI calculates contract Risk/Reward - Reliable Data from Bloomberg and Thomson Reuters - Control your own funds: Trade mobile app includes non-custodial private wallet - Blockchain-based smart contracts for transparency and reliability - No tampering: Settlement finality on ETH blockchain - Trade In Multiple Markets: Forex, Crypto, Commodity - Easy To Use: Generate profits from price movements, hedging or insurance.
Download and try it, https://play.google.com/store/apps/details...
Quickstart Guide: https://level01.io/quickstart-trading-guide/
Web: https://Level01.io
submitted by Level01Exchange to Level01io [link] [comments]

One more day to our main app launch! Get ready for real money trading.

One more day to our main app launch! Get ready for real money trading.
https://preview.redd.it/7xixflx2szr51.jpg?width=526&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=122f8cb099cbe0ce621fbd538e0cf0f432ec587b
Level01 is the World’s 1st DeFi Platform with AI-Guided Derivatives Trading.
- Clear, Transparent and Fair Options Trading DApp - Decentralized: Peer to peer options trading for more profits - Trade Fairly: FairSense AI calculates contract Risk/Reward - Reliable Data from Bloomberg and Thomson Reuters - Control your own funds: Trade mobile app includes non-custodial private wallet - Blockchain-based smart contracts for transparency and reliability - No tampering: Settlement finality on ETH blockchain - Trade In Multiple Markets: Forex, Crypto, Commodity - Easy To Use: Generate profits from price movements, hedging or insurance.
Download and try it, https://play.google.com/store/apps/details...
Quickstart Guide: https://level01.io/quickstart-trading-guide/
Web: https://Level01.io
submitted by Level01Exchange to u/Level01Exchange [link] [comments]

Barclay Stone CFD Forex broker, recenzja: perspektywy wzrostu bitcoina w ciągu 5 lat

Barclay Stone CFD Forex broker, recenzja: perspektywy wzrostu bitcoina w ciągu 5 lat
Analityk Bloomberg - Mike McGlown podzielił się myślą, że kryptowaluta ma wszelkie szanse na wzrost ceny o 900% w ciągu 5 lat. Tę opinię podzielają również inni eksperci.
Główne powody, dla których może się to zdarzyć:
-deprecjacja walut fiducjarnych. Na tle polityki monetarnej, wielu państw zwyciężą aktywa o ograniczonej emisji, takie jak BTC i złoto.
-powolna, ale nieunikniona społeczna akceptacja kryptowalut (dlatego faktycznie do końca 2020 roku cena bitcoina może wzrosnąć do 14 000$). „Jeśli kryptowaluta utrzyma stabilne tempo dystrybucji na tym samym poziomie… do 2025 r. cena może wzrosnąć do 100 000 $”, - przewiduje McGlone.
Inni analitycy uważają, że przyczyny dalszego wzrostu bitcoina to:
-rosnący popyt na kryptowalutę, jako aktywa inwestycyjne, które przez długi czas zachowują wartość oszczędności
-wzrost popytu na bitcoiny ze strony inwestorów instytucjonalnych
-proces inflacyjny na klasycznych rynkach, załamanie dolara, wzrost cen złota i rozwój kryzysu na tle drugiej fali kwarantanny
-widoczna niechęć traderów do masowej sprzedaży monet, nawet w przypadku gwałtownego spadku ich wartości.
Zapraszamy do naszej platformy handlowej Barclay Stone. Możesz przeczytać recenzję brokera tutaj: https://www.rubaltic.ru/press/barclay-stone-recenzja-platformy-handlowej-oraz-opinie-o-firmie/

https://preview.redd.it/2hrcrus7sqr51.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5ec914c715ffd3bea7f7b915dadb41afee2fad4d
#barclaystone #forex #broker #giełda #brokerzyforex #traderzyforex #inwestowanie #akcje #kryptowaluty #dommaklerski #crypto #monety #monetycyfrowe #rynekwalutowy
submitted by barclaystoneltd to u/barclaystoneltd [link] [comments]

Universal Bypass - Changelog

Universal Bypass

Changelog

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13.0 — The Design Update

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12.0 — The Updated Update

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11.0 — The Timed Update

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Barclay Stone CFD Forex Broker, opinia: znaczna redukcja komisji w sieci Ethereum

Barclay Stone CFD Forex Broker, opinia: znaczna redukcja komisji w sieci Ethereum
Na początku września średnia wielkość prowizji wynosiła 14,5$. Dziś cena ta spadła do 2,3$. Oznacza to, że średnia prowizja w sieci Ethereum spadła ponad 6-krotnie od początku miesiąca. Jeszcze na początku sierpnia jedna operacja kosztowała użytkownikom średnio 1,5$. Ale potem koszt transakcji zaczął rosnąć ze względu na wzrost popularności dziedziny finansów zdecentralizowanych (DeFi). Przeglądaj recenzję brokera https://www.rubaltic.ru/press/barclay-stone-recenzja-platformy-handlowej-oraz-opinie-o-firmie/ oraz chodź na naszą platformę handlową.

https://preview.redd.it/lxemxgh439r51.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e876348460af0cbff574c644fbb8f1bd0637750b
#barclaystone #forex #broker #trader #handel #inwestowanie #giełda #brokerzyforex #traderzyforex #akcje #kryptowaluta #bitcoin #ethereum #dommaklerski
submitted by barclaystoneltd to u/barclaystoneltd [link] [comments]

Aussie goes against the wind. Forecast as of 05.10.2020

Aussie goes against the wind. Forecast as of 05.10.2020

Monthly Australian dollar fundamental analysis

Hope for the best but do the rest. Although the major drivers of the AUDUSD 30% rally up from the March low have been the rapid recovery of China’s economy and the increase in the global risk appetite, the Australian dollar has domestic drivers as well. Australia efficiently manages the pandemic, and the government is willing to expand the fiscal stimulus. Australia’s Treasurer Josh Frydenberg is willing to provide money until the labor market returns to the full employment state. It is about the unemployment rate of 5%. The current unemployment rate is 6.8%, and it may grow to 8%-10%. It will hardly drop back to 5% before 2022.
Investors expect the Treasury to boost the fiscal stimulus. As a result, the net debt burden will increase to AU$712 billion or to 38% of the GDP. At the same time, the national debt ceiling will be increased above AU$1.1 trillion, and the income tax hike, planned for 2022, will be delayed. In the USA, the national debt exceeds 100% of GDP, in the euro-area, it is close to 100%, the Japanese government debt is more than 200%. Canberra can afford additional stimulus. Besides, the expansion of government bonds issue will support the capital inflow in Australia and strengthen the Aussie. Australia’s government bond rates are the highest among the countries issuing the G10 currencies.

Dynamics of Australia’s net debt, % of the GDP


Source: Bloomberg
Carry trades and high investment rating of Australia’s securities support and will support the AUDUSD bulls amid the high risk appetite and low volatility. That is the reason for the AUD correlation with the US stock indices. The turmoil in the S&P 500 market ahead of the US presidential election will suggest the AUDUSD consolidation.

Dynamics of AUDUSD and S&P 500


Source: Trading Economics
In addition to the size of the additional fiscal stimulus, investors are focused on the RBA's willingness to expand the volume of monetary support. In September, the RBA officials discussed such measures as the interest-rate cut down to 0.1%, purchasing bonds with longer maturities than currently under QE, negative borrowing costs, and even FX interventions. The latter two options are aggressive, and the regulator will hardly resort to such measures. But it is likely to cut the interest rate by 12 basis points. The derivatives market suggests it will happen already this year.

Monthly AUDUSD trading plan

Expectations of monetary expansion is a bearish factor for the AUD. However, I don’t think the RBA will do it in October. It is likely to leave the door open for the interest rate cut in the future and set the Aussie bulls back using verbal interventions. The RBA will hardly turn the uptrend down, so, its dovish stance will give a chance to buy the pair of the price fall. Following ht consolidation in the range of 0.695-0.735, the AUDUSD is likely to continue its rally up to 0.76 and 0.79.

For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/aussie-goes-against-the-wind-forecast-as-of-05102020/ ?uid=285861726&cid=62423
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

Dollar goes up amid the troubles. Forecast as of 30.09.2020

Dollar goes up amid the troubles. Forecast as of 30.09.2020
Carry trades have been an important driver of the EURUSD fall in September. It should go on in October. Let us discuss the euro outlook and make up a EURUSD trading plan

Weekly fundamental US dollar forecast

Money rules the world. In summer, big traders were selling off the dollar. In autumn, they are eagerly buying it again. If we answer the question “Why?”, we can understand what will be next. The world is going to change after the pandemic and the US presidential election. The clue could be given by the assets crashed in September. It is not enough just to sell the greenback, one should buy something instead. Emerging markets’ currencies have significantly weakened in September, and the bet on carry trades hasn’t worked out. Carry traders were closing positions, going back to the US dollar, which has become one of its major growth drivers.
In 2015-2019, amid the Fed monetary normalization, the greenback lost its appeal as a funding currency, giving the way to the euro and the yen. 2020 should have begun the golden age for carry traders. The federal funds rate crashed to a zero level, Treasury yield rolled down to all-time lows, and the rise of the US stock indexes up from the March lows reassured investors pressing down the volatility. Furthermore, most analysts suggested a grim outlook for the dollar, and speculators increased the USD shorts to a two-year high. The situation was perfect for carry traders!

Dynamics of Treasury yield and break-even


Source: Wall Street Journal

Dynamics of USD speculative positions



Source: Wall Street Journal
Remarkably, this perfect world has crashed because of the Fed. The Fed, by its vague explanation of the new average inflation targeting policy, has triggered the volatility rise, which pressed down the global risk appetite and supported the greenback strengthening. The situation has also been fueled by the disputes among the Republicans and the Democrats about the new fiscal stimulus package. But the responsibility of the central bank is clear. The US presidential election is another factor, which increases the FX volatility, discourages carry traders, and drives the USD index up. The presidential election is going to be the most important topic for financial markets in October.
Ahead of the debates, the EURUSD rates were rising amid the concerns that Joe Biden could beat Donald Trump, which would send the dollar down. In fact, there wasn’t a constructive talk. The opponents frequently interrupted each other and even resorted to verbal insults, which emphasized their disrespect for each other. Based on the approval ratings, no one won. The major currency pair is unlikely to rally up. Uncertainty will drive Forex through November 4, and the greenback as a rule benefits form the uncertainty. Another matter is a new world. The world after the pandemic and the election. The world of carry trades and emerging markets’ currencies. After all, it too early to speculate about this.

Weekly trading plan for EURUSD

In the short run, the inability of the EURUSD bulls to drive the rates back above 1.18 will signal their weakness, increasing the risk of the consolidation in the range of 1.161-1.177. Especially since investors would rather wait and see ahead of the US jobs report. It makes sense to avoid trading or trade intraday.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/dollar-goes-up-amid-the-troubles-forecast-as-of-30092020/ ?uid=285861726&cid=62423
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

Pound escaped from the scaffold. Forecast as of 29.09.2020

Pound escaped from the scaffold. Forecast as of 29.09.2020
It seemed that Boris Johnson should have crashed the sterling by the domestic market bill. But it was only a part of the plan. Let us discuss the pound prospects and make a GBPUSD trading plan.

Fundamental Pound forecast for this week

How to make a nation happy? Ruin the hopes for the bright future and bring them back. The UK domestic market bill, which allows canceling some paragraphs of the EU-UK deal signed last year, could have ruined the last hopes for a Brexit deal. The UK has created problems itself and was going to face new tariffs after December 31, which would hit the UK economy, already weak. Fortunately, the chance to sign the EU-UK trade deal has increased, and the pound is strengthening.
All or nothing. The final round of the EU-UK talks should clarify the situation, also for the sterling future trend. The progress suggests moving into the next stage of the “tunnel” negotiations to allow both sides to discuss detail and present the draft deal at the EU summit in mid-October. Otherwise, if the negotiations fail, the chance of a no-deal Brexit will surge. The pound traders are preparing for the market turmoil, as the GBP will be somewhat responsive to any news about Brexit talks. The EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, told there was “a more open atmosphere at the negotiating table.” Moreover, Bloomberg’s source familiar with the matter suggests that the EU will demand the withdrawal of specific provisions on the UK internal market bill in exchange for concessions. The GBPUSD bulls went ahead and sent the rate above the top of figure 29 for a while.

Reaction of pound to positive information about Brexit


Source: Reuters.
If the Brexit deal is signed, Boris Jonson’s game will be useful. The UK often exaggerates the crisis scale to fuel the positive news after the problem is solved. If so, the BoE will have no reasons to cut the interest rates below zero. Expectations for the BoE rate cut were one of the drivers for the sterling’s drop in September. Some BoE officials, including Andrew Bailey and the deputy Governor Dave Ramsden, say there is no need for negative rates. Their opponents, including Silvana Tenreyro, note that in other countries, the banking system has adapted to similar monetary policy.
We shouldn’t deceive ourselves about the positive influence of the UK fiscal stimulus on the pound rate. According to Goldman Sachs, the new financial aid package won’t save the UK labor market form either the loss of another 2.2 million jobs or the unemployment growth to 9%, which is two times more than the current level.

GBPUSD trading plan for the week

Brexit and nothing else will determine the sterling trends for the near future. The progress in the Brexit talks encourages the GBPUSD bulls. Pound volatility should be very high during the week through October 2. If the UK-EU talks succeed, the price could hit 1.33. If the pound buyers break out the resistance at $1.2925-$1.293, it may be a signal to buy the GBPUSD. There must be a stop loss, as the lack of progress could send the pair towards 1.2.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/pound-escaped-from-the-scaffold-forecast-as-of-29092020/ ?uid=285861726&cid=62423
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

Barclay Stone CFD Forex Broker, recenzja: na jakie aktywa inwestor powinien zwrócić uwagę w tym tygodniu

Barclay Stone CFD Forex Broker, recenzja: na jakie aktywa inwestor powinien zwrócić uwagę w tym tygodniu
W tym tygodniu proponujemy śledzić za firmą naftową Brent. Widzimy, że w poniedziałek, 28.09, cena ropy spadła przy wzroście przypadków koronawirusa. Brent kosztuje 42,12 $ za baryłkę, co jest na 0,68% poniżej piątkowego zamknięcia. „Biorąc pod uwagę wzrost działalności wiertniczej w Stanach Zjednoczonych, a także szybkie rozprzestrzenianie COVID-19 w Europie, ryzyko drugiego tymczasowego obniżenia ceny ropy poniżej 40$, nadal pozostaje”, - powiedział ekspert Wasilij Karpunin.
Tesla podpisał kontrakt na dostawy litu z australijską firmą Piedmont Lithium (który Tesla potrzebuje do produkcji akumulatorów samochodowych). Głowa firmy podzielił się swoimi planami, dotyczącymi nowych autorskich baterii Tesli. Rozpoczęcie dostawy litu ma się rozpocząć między lipcem 2022 r. a lipcem 2023 r. Również, szef producenta samochodów elektrycznych Tesla i założyciel firmy lotniczej SpaceX-Elon Musk, ogłosił montaż statku kosmicznego Starship SN8 do pierwszego lotu na wysokość 18 km. W maju, firma SpaceX wystrzelił już prototyp statku kosmicznego, ale jego silnik eksplodował się dwie minuty później. 25 września SpaceX ogłosił, że silnik był pomyślnie przetestowany w siedzibie firmy w Teksasie. 20 września miał wejść w życie zakaz Donalda Trumpa na pobieranie aplikacji TikTok w Stanach Zjednoczonych. Ale 19 września okazało się, że Trump zgodził się na zakup TikTok przez amerykańskie firmy Oracle i Walmart. Najprawdopodobniej, po debiucie TikTok Global na IPO, obie firmy otrzymają 20% akcji - Oracle otrzyma 12,5%, a Walmart + 7,5%. Zapraszamy na naszą platformę handlową. Tu możesz przeczytać recenzję brokera B-stone: https://www.rubaltic.ru/press/barclay-stone-recenzja-platformy-handlowej-oraz-opinie-o-firmie/

https://preview.redd.it/1018nu1pf2q51.jpg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=69376eb689d626f4cbcc374dd8d32fb327a00b02
#forex #broker #giełda #trader #traderzyforex #brokerzyforex #akcje #kryptowaluta #handel #tiktok #spacex #tesla #ropanaftowa #brent
submitted by barclaystoneltd to u/barclaystoneltd [link] [comments]

Barclay Stone CFD Forex broker, opinia: Amazon nie pozostawia konkurencji, uruchamiając dostawę za pomocą dronów

Barclay Stone CFD Forex broker, opinia: Amazon nie pozostawia konkurencji, uruchamiając dostawę za pomocą dronów
Niedawno Amazon otrzymał pozwolenie od Federalnej Administracji Lotnictwa USA (FAA) na wykonywanie podróży lotniczych i pozwolenie na dostarczanie towarów za pomocą dronów. Amazon już stworzył drona, który może zastąpić kurierów - jest to dron-heksakoptera MK27, podnoszący ładunki o wadze do 2,5 kg. Kilka lat temu firma opatentowała nawet specjalną wieżę-ulej dla dronów (do startu i lądowania dronów, a także dla obsługiwania dostawy automatycznej i klientów). Chociaż nie jest to pełnoprawna premiera, Amazon testuje ten pomysł na kilku witrynach testowych w USA. Projekt Amazon Prime Air wystartował jeszcze w 2013 roku, ale duża liczba ograniczeń sprzętowych i problemów bezpieczeństwa związanych z wprowadzeniem dronów, spowalnia proces zastępowania ludzi robotami. Poza tym, projekt jest niesamowicie drogi. Oczywiście wprowadzenie dostawy za pomocą dronów, zwiększa zainteresowanie inwestorów i popyt na usługi Amazona nad konkurencją. Po ogłoszeniu tej wiadomości wartość akcji spółki wzrosła o 2%. Zapraszamy na naszą platformę handlową.
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Four reasons for buying yen. Forecast for 16.09.20

Four reasons for buying yen. Forecast for 16.09.20
Ahead of the Fed’s and Bank of Japan’s meetings, the Japanese yen is certainly worth discussing. Enjoy your popcorn and remember to check out the trading signals and trading plan for USDJPY and EURJPY for the nearest weeks at the end of this article.

Fundamental forecast for yen for today

Yoshihide Suga’s unconditional victory in the party race to become Japan’s next Prime Minister, the US-China trade war’s revival and the upcoming presidential elections in the USA redrew investors’ attention to the yen. USDJPY’s quotes have been falling for three days in a row and got close to the level of 105. Rumour has it that the Bank of Japan may get angry and intervene if that level is broken. The situation around EURJPY is interesting too.
If Shinzo Abe’s dismissal shocked the financial markets, the information about Yoshihide Suga’s appointment calmed them down. Let me remind you that Yoshihide Suga is Abe’s supporter and one of the authors of the “three arrows” strategy. The new Prime Minister isn’t going to put pressure on the BoJ in order to change monetary policy. He believes that there’s no need to raise taxes in the next 10 years, and that economic growth must improve the country’s financial state. He plans to shake up some sectors and bureaucratic mechanisms, but at the beginning of his term, he’ll need to recover GDP.
A clear political context is a boon for a national currency. The fact that Japan chose its PM, while the US has yet to choose its president, is beneficial to USDJPY bears. Still, their main trump is the divergence in the Fed’s and BoJ’s policies: the Fed’s response to recession was so fierce that the fall of the real US bond yields weakened the greenback and would probably continue weakening it.

Dynamics of US bond yields


Source: Wall Street Journal.
The yen is growing on the WTO’s ruling that US tariffs on Chinese imports are illegal. Beijing approved of that. Washington got angry. I doubt that the conflict will escalate before the elections. However, it’s obvious that the trade war is a long-lasting subject no matter who takes the US president’s chair. In 2019, global investors thought it was the main factor in market pricing. In 2020, the trade war dropped to the 4th line: the pandemic, November’s US elections and payment default risks have become the number one priority topics.
I think the trade war subject has been undeservedly neglected. During a pandemic, imports and exports usually reduce proportionally, and the trade balance remains unchanged. It’s true of Canada, Japan, Britain and Germany. Alas, the US foreign trade deficit is growing and the Chinese one is reducing. China’s industrial sectors are recovering faster, and Beijing may face another round of clashes after the US election.

Industrial production dynamics


Source: Bloomberg.

Weekly trading plan for USDJPY and EURJPY

Trading wars were favourable to the yen in 2018-2019, but its fans have other advantages this time too. I don’t think the BoJ will interfere if USDJPY breaks support at 105. So, we can open short positions. Opening shorts in EURJPY at the breakout of 124.6-124.65 looks interesting too.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/four-reasons-for-buying-yen-forecast-as-of-160920/ ?uid=285861726&cid=62423
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

AUD/USD forecast: Aussie wants to keep the party going

AUD/USD forecast: Aussie wants to keep the party going

Fundamental Australian dollar forecast for today

Are the AUD/USD growth drivers exhausted?

In the second quarter, the Australian economy encountered the deepest downturn since the records started in 1959. Australia’s GDP contracted by 7% Q-o-Q and by 6.3% Y-o-Y. The RBA cut the interest rate to the record lo. The central bank has also bought AU$60 since March amid the QE program. The Aussie should have dropped in value, but the AUD/USD rate has been 32% up since the low hit in March. Doesn’t the major rule of the fundamental analysis “strong economy – strong currency” work here? Now, it perfectly works! The matter is that everything is relative in Forex!
A drop by 6.3% in Australian growth is nothing compared to the US GDP contraction by 32%. AUS$60 billion is very little compared with the trillions of dollars in the USA. In Australia, there are less than 30,000 of coronavirus cases, while there are more than six million of COVID-19 cases in the USA. Australia has managed the pandemic better than many other advanced economies, the economy is not critically weak, the RBA yield control policy allows it not to waste the monetary tools. Besides, China supports Australia’s foreign trade.

Dynamics of RBA interest rate and the Australian dollar exchange rate


Source: Bloomberg
China is the largest market for Australian exports. Although the diplomatic relations between the two countries are tense, after Canberra accused China of COVID-19 laboratory origins, the trade relations are good. Since the beginning of the year, Australia’s exports to China have increased by 75% compared to the same period in 2016, when the last official meeting of the countries’ leaders took place. The core of the China-Australia trade is iron ore. Over the past twelve months, China has imported 700 million tons of iron ore from Australia. It is twice as much as it was in 2010 when the diplomatic relations between Australia and China were much better.

Chinese imports from Australia


Source: Bloomberg
Therefore, the AUD/USD uptrend is strong for several reasons. Australia’s economy is stronger compared to others, China supports Australia’s foreign trade, the Fed’s monetary expansion is unprecedented, which weakens the US dollar. The matter is whether the major bullish drivers have exhausted? Will the Aussie continue its rally?
The analysts polled by Reuters believe the AUD/USD uptrend should slow down. The see the pair trading at 0.72 in one and three months. In six and twelve months, the exchange rate will be at 0.73 and 0.74, accordingly. These levels are close to the current one, which suggests a long consolidation period. In my opinion, it is still relevant to buy the Aussie. China has averted a new round of trade war with the US. The Australian government is working on the income tax reduction bill, which should support GDP growth. The greenback’s’ long-term outlook remains bearish. So, I recommend entering the AUD/USD longs if Australia’s job report for August is positive. The middle-term targets are at 0.75 and 0.763.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/audusd-forecast-aussie-wants-to-keep-the-party-going/?uid=285861726&cid=79634
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

EUR/USD forecast: Euro doesn’t believe its luck

EUUSD forecast: Euro doesn’t believe its luck

Fundamental euro forecast for today

EUUSD bulls do not believe Christine Lagarde’s optimism

ECB is monitoring the euro exchange rate, but it is not willing to start a currency war now. Christine Lagarde expressed optimism about the euro-area economic recovery, the ECB president hasn’t signaled the further monetary easing in the near future. Lagarde’s speech should have encouraged the EUUSD bulls, but they didn’t believe the good news, so they didn’t go ahead. It looks like a catch. The ECB officials express concerns about the euro strengthening ahead of the Governing Council meeting, and, next, the ECB president sounds hawkish.
At the press conference, Christine Lagarde several times stressed that exchange rates and the euro appreciation were not the ECB policy target. However, the exchange rate was the most discussed topic at the Governing Council meeting in September. According to a Reuters source familiar with the matter, the ECB officials have agreed that the EUUSD rally resulted from a faster economic rebound in the euro area compared to the US growth, the Fed’s easy monetary policy, the increased confidence in the currency bloc due to the management of the pandemic fallout. Moreover, the upcoming presidential election in the US weighs on the US dollar. Bloomberg’s leading indicators signal that the GDP recovery is the fastest in Germany. After a temporary downturn in France, Italy, and Spain on concern about the second wave of the COVID-19 outbreak, the economic activity is gradually increasing. The UK, US, and Canada persistently lag behind.

Dynamics of the economic recovery


Source: Bloomberg
Four sources on the ECB's Governing Council told Reuters that the ECB acknowledges the negative effects of the euro's strength on inflation and growth, but the central bank is not willing to start a currency war. Speaking after the meeting, two sources said they saw $1.20 as not far from the equilibrium exchange rate at present. According to Citigroup, if the EUUSD is up by another 5%, the European Central Bank will take active measures. In the meanwhile, the regulator is carefully monitoring the exchange rates of the regional currency. The Governing Council policymakers at the meeting considered adopting the language used to stem the euro's previous rally, in early 2018, when the former ECB President Mario Draghi described "volatility in the exchange rate" as "a source of uncertainty", according to Reuters.
The Reuters sources say the southern countries of the eurozone are much more concerned about the euro strengthening than the northern ones. The Governing Council hawks wanted Lagarde to note the great progress in the euro-area economic recovery. François Villeroy de Galhau, the governor of the French central bank, insisted on this especially strongly.
So, the EUUSD bulls feared verbal interventions, signals of monetary easing, and the ECB willingness to follow the Fed’s example and target the average inflation. None of the fears came true. However, the euro hasn’t consolidated above $1.19. Are the buyers so weak? Or, they could feel a catch and will resume attacks after the ECB officials’ speeches. I suppose both scenarios should be considered. If the euro rises above $1.192, it will be relevant to buy. If it slides down below the support levels of $1.1795 and $1.1765, we should sell the euro versus the dollar.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/eurusd-forecast-euro-doesnt-believe-its-luck/?uid=285861726&cid=62423
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

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EUR/USD forecast: Dollar is drifting

EUUSD forecast: Dollar is drifting

Fundamental US dollar forecast for today

Investors are staying aside ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech and the publications of the US important domestic data

People see what they want to see. The euro fans are so enthusiastic that they prefer to ignore the flaws of the single European currency. Is the US-China trade resumed? It is not a problem! In 2018-2019, the EUUSD pair was falling amid the trade conflict escalation. In 2020, however, it will be rising in this case because of the diversification of the PBOC FX reserves in favor of the euro. Are there talks about the expansion of European QE? It is not a problem! The ECB just can’t ease its monetary policy as much as the Fed. Is there the second pandemic wave in Europe? It doesn’t matter; the illness is asymptomatic; there won’t be another lockdown.
Optimism grows stronger. However, people with accompanying pathologies most often die from COVID-19. If we transfer this metaphor to the global economic sense, the accompanying pathology of the export-led euro-area economy is a downturn of the international trade. The process started because of trade wars, and the pandemic intensified it. According to the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, flows of goods across borders were 12.5% lower in the second quarter than in the first quarter of the year. It is the worst drop since records started in 2000. In the three months through June, the US exports contracted by 24.8%, the euro-area exports were 19.2% down. However, the US exports account for 20% of the country’s GDP; in the Eurozone, they exceed 40%. The euro-area exporters will have a difficult time, taking into account the euro’s rapid growth.
With this regard, the USA is in a better position, which allows the White House to repeat its mantra about the V-shaped economic recovery. People see what they want to see. Larry Kudlow, the chief economic advisor to Trump, ignores the problems of the US labor market and the drop in consumer confidence to the lowest level since 2014. He stresses the best new home sales over the past 14 years, industrial recovery, and the S&P500 record highs.

Dynamics of US consumer confidence



Source: Bloomberg

Dynamics of new home sales in USA



Source: Bloomberg
Unlike the White House, the Federal Reserve is more cautious. Jerome Powell has many times stressed the slow GDP recovery, the necessity to take control over OCVID-19, and fresh fiscal stimulus. The Republicans and Democrats can’t reach an agreement for a new financial aid package, and the Fed has to take the responsibility. So, investors anticipate Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole to get something meaningful.
According to MUFG Bank, Powell will focus on holding low interest rates, thereby weakening the greenback. Investors expect the Fed Chair to express the Fed’s willingness to “seek a moderate inflation overshoot” and reinforce its commitment to full employment. If so, there will be other evidence that the Fed is running out of monetary tools. If the number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits falls while durable goods orders rise, the EUUSD bears can go ahead and try to break out the support levels of 1.178 and 1.1755. Otherwise, weak data and the Fed’s willingness to weaken the dollar can resume the greenback’s downtrend.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/eurusd-forecast-dollar-is-drifting/?uid=285861726&cid=79634
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

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GBP/USD forecast: Pound stays calm

GBP/USD forecast: Pound stays calm

Fundamental Pound forecast for today

Sterling is focused on foreign factors and ignores domestic negative data

The GBP is still moving according to foreign factors because of the lack of important events in the economic calendar and expectations of the virtual gathering of the world’s central bankers in Jackson Hole. Investors pay no attention to the negative factors associated with Brexit, twin deficits (budget deficit and current account deficit), and the first-ever excess of the UK national debt over £2 trillion. Forex analysts suggest that if the euro breaks higher than $1.2 and moves on towards $1.25, the sterling will easily reach $1.35.
The options market is surprisingly stable without any response to Brexit issues. A year ago, the pound volatility will higher than that of the Mexican peso, and the market was shaken. The sterling volatility over the next 3 months is below the average for the last 5 years and slightly above the euro volatility. Taking into account that the EU-UK talks are close to the critical point, the market stability looks surprising. It suggests that either investors are confident in a soon Brexit deal or they do not expect that any of the parties will add uncertainty. However, a 60% likelihood of a Brexit deal doesn’t rule out a 40% chance of a no-deal divorce. It seems that after any failure in the previous negotiations, investors expect a breakthrough in each next round.
According to JP Morgan, a no-deal Brexit will contract the UK GDP by 5.5%, and the UK economy is already in a recession. There are several bearish drivers for the sterling. The twin deficits, the Conservatives’ discontent with the growth of the UK national debt, the second wave of COVID-19 in Europe, and the potentially vulnerable labor market due to the expiration of the financial aid package in October. According to Bloomberg, the programs, which have protected four million jobs should end in October. That could hit the labor market, slow down the GDP in the fourth quarter, and result in a boost of the UK QE by £100 billion.

Dynamics of UK jobs supported by state programs


Source: Bloomberg
So, the pound has many flaws. However, it has caught the tailwinds and responds to the increase in the global risk appetite and the Fed’s willingness to weaken the US dollar through the average inflation targeting. Nonetheless, Jerome Powell may not announce such a plan in Jackson Hole. Furthermore, the S&P500 may not be close to the all-time highs for a long time. According to the majority of 200 experts surveyed by Reuters, global stock indexes at the end of 2020 are likely to be lower than the levels hit in February, which means a correction down from the current levels.

Dynamics of GBP/USD and S&P 500


Source: Trading Economics
In my opinion, investors ignore the UK's negative domestic factors because they are focused on Powell’s upcoming speech. If he announces the Fed’s average inflation targeting, the GBP/USD may break through the August highs and continue rallying up to 1.337 and 1.35. Otherwise, the sterling could go down below the support at 1.315.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/gbpusd-forecast-pound-stays-calm/?uid=285861726&cid=79634
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

EUR/USD forecast: Euro is scared of heights

EUUSD forecast: Euro is scared of heights

Fundamental Euro forecast for today

Isn’t EUUSD trading too high?

The Forex market is always changing! In winter, the news about progress in the US-China would strengthen the euro. In spring, the US stock market rally would support the EUUSD bulls. At the end of summer, however, the euro isn’t rising amid the US optimistic announcements about making a deal with China. It isn’t rising although the S&P500 has hit a fresh high on the news about the accelerated approval of vaccines and the use of blood plasma to treat critically ill COVID-19 patients. Isn’t the euro trading too high?
Although Donald Trump claims he does not want to talk with China and does not rule out a complete break in relations with this country, US and Chinese officials discussed the status of the trade deal. Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He spoke with US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to discuss further action needed to make progress on the trade deal. Such a tone suggests the White House still wants to reach an agreement with China.
Beijing has fallen behind its first-year commitment. Nonetheless, the recovery of China’s economy, growing domestic demand, and the unwillingness to inflame tensions with Washington suggest that there won’t be a new round of trade wars.

China’s commitments on increasing its purchases of US products



Source: Bloomberg
Donald Trump doesn’t want to resume the trade battle ahead of the US presidential election. Joe Biden has already accused him of the failure of his policy with Beijing, so he wouldn’t give his opponent another reason for criticism. China doesn’t want new tariffs. China’s economy, unlike most advanced economies, will expand in 2020. JP Morgan increased the forecast for the Chinese GDP in 2020 from 1.3% to 2.5%. The US GDP, for example, should contract by 8% this year.
The continuous rise of the US stock indexes and progress in US-China trade relations supported Trump’s approval ratings, which could be a reason for the EUUSD correction. What is good for Trump is good for the US dollar.

Dynamics of Trump’s approval rating and USD



Source: Nordea Markets
But still, the primary reason for the euro drawdown is likely to be the second wave of the pandemic in Europe. The ratio of the COVID-19 cases in Europe and the US peaked in early August, but the situation has changed since then.

Dynamics of EUUSD and US-Europe COVID-19 case count



Source: Nordea Markets
If the EUUSD breaks out supports at 1.178 and 1.1755 could suggest entering short-term sell trades. One should not hold the shorts for too long, in my opinion. Many euro’s growth drivers still work out, and the deterioration of the euro-area epidemiological situation will hardly last for a long time.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/eurusd-forecast-euro-is-scared-of-heights/?uid=285861726&cid=79634
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

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